Forecasting production output is a critical function in a hand-off between the Cultivation team and the Packing and Sales teams. To aid in that hand-off, LUNA CMP has developed a feature we're calling Crystal Ball. With Crystal Ball, when you schedule or start batches, you're able to see what your projected output as well as loss percentage will be. As a note, this is only available for templates/batches with a single harvest. It is not available for cut-and-come again or partial harvests.
How Crystal Ball Works
The Crystal Ball forecast is calculated based on historical harvests, looking at relevant recent harvests on a rolling basis. This ensures that seasonality is taken into account and any abnormally detected harvests (for instance, you had to dump an entire batch) are removed from the forecast by performing several prediction computations and showing you the "best" one with the lowest error value. If you hover over the tooltip, you'll see which computation was used for your forecasted loss and output calculation.
- Forecasted Loss is calculated using loss from discards/destroys as well as any built in loss when measuring historical yield.
- Forecasted Output will be shown for any resource outputs associated with the batch. Included will be a target amount as well as a range. Forecasted outputs will take loss into account as well.
Where to find Crystal Ball
On batch start or schedule pages, you'll find fine the forecast component right below the starting batch quantity and unit inputs. As you adjust your starting batch quantity, you'll see the Crystal Ball forecast update in real time.
Below is an example of the forecast component on the multi batch start modal. It is located within the Quantity & Resources section. You can also find it on the the scheduled task start in the task list and when creating a schedule for a batch.
Things to Note
Forecasted output and loss will only appear when there is enough data in the system to provide an accurate forecast. If there is not enough data, a forecast will not be shown.